The Five Most Important Statistical Factors in Winning Basketball Games

The five most important TEAM statistical categories are:

1)  Effective Field Goal Percentage
2)  Free Throw Percentage
3)  Rebounds
4)  Turnovers
5)  Fouls

Each season’s overall plan, then game-plan for each opponent, was designed to win at least three of the five categories.

I have found in the 100s of high school basketball games that I have been involved in that it is nearly impossible to win three of the five categories and lose the game. The times that it is possible are when one team dominates the three point shooting or is able to get more possessions by getting the last shot of each quarter.

I have also learned that it is very difficult to win all five categories. The few times the teams I coached have been able to win all five categories, the results have been lopsided victories.

A study of Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big 12, and CUSA Season games shows that there actually is an order of importance to those statistics.

1. The team that recorded the high field goal percentage was the winner in 75 percent of the basketball games.
2. The team that scored the most free throws was the eventual winner in 70 percent of the games.
3. The team that recovered the higher number of rebounds was the winner 65 percent of the time.
4. The team that committed the higher number of personal fouls was the eventual winner in oniy 25 percent of the games.
5. The team that held the point advantage at halftime was the winner 74 percent of the time.

After seeing the study, I am even more convinced as to the value of keeping the ball out of the lane on defense, taking care of the ball to get high percentage shots on offense, and playing very hard on defense, but without fouling, as the staple ingredients for our system of play year in and year out.